Note: A Vinexpo study forecasts that growth in Canadian wine and spirits consumption will continue to grow up to 2016 and will be three times greater than that of the rest of the world. What follows are the results of the study.
TORONTO — The unveiling of Vinexpo’s 11th study on the Current trends in the international wine and spirits market and outlook to 2016, conducted by British firm, The International Wine and Spirit Research (IWSR) on behalf of Vinexpo was held in Montréal and Toronto, with the participation of the prestigious fair’s spokespersons, Robert Beynat, general manager and Xavier de Eizaguirre, chairman.
A veritable benchmark for sector professionals, this much-anticipated study confirms that Canada will maintain its impressive growth rate with regard to wine consumption between 2012 and 2016 (+14.27 per cent), three times greater than the global average.
Between 2012 and 2016, Canada will become the world’s fifth biggest wine consumer, behind China, the United States, Russia and Germany.
Vinexpo, the international wine and spirits fair, will open its doors in five months, running from June 16 to 20, 2013. Held every two years, the fair highlights the achievements made by sector professionals. More than 650 Canadian operators will join the event’s 48,000 expected visitors.
Accelerated growth within the international wine market
Still and sparkling wines posted a +2.8 per cent increase between 2007 and 2011, for a sales total of 2.679 billion 9-litre cases, representing 32 billion bottles. The Vinexpo study forecasts that said consumption growth rate will increase between 2012 and 2016 and re-establish the pace it set in the early 2000s at +5.3 per cent over five years. The study further estimates that international consumption in 2016 will reach 2.873 billion 9-litre cases, representing 34.48 billion bottles.
“This growth is easy to explain,” comments Robert Beynat, general manager of Vinexpo. “China, the United States and Russia are core markets that drive international growth. In 2010, China became the world’s fifth biggest wine consumer, while the United States took the lead.”
These three markets and Australia alone saw their consumption jump by 1.55 billion bottles between 2007 and 2011.
However, the situation is reversed across Europe, where wine consumption is undergoing a downturn. For the first time in 15 years, the United Kingdom and Germany posted a respective drop of -4.07 per cent and -2.73 per cent between 2007 and 2011. France and Italy were similarly affected during this period, with respective drops of -7.13 per cent and -2.51 per cent, while Spain underwent a significant free-fall of 19.67 per cent over the past five years. The United States, France and Italy were the period’s top three consumers.
On the export side, the French have reaffirmed their international leadership position with an export sales figure of US $9.9 billion (+5.24 per cent since 2007).
Italy, Spain and Australia are hot on their heels, posting significant sales volume increases. Sadly, said boosts are not proportional to their sales figure increase, reflecting a notable average price drop among export wines.
Evolving consumption habits
The Vinexpo study underscores several major changes in consumption habits, namely the rapid growth of sparkling wines, with an 8.52 per cent increase between 2012 and 2016, as well as the steady rise of rosé wines, which will rise 7.58 per cent by 2016.
Red wines are still dominating the international market, as they represented 54.7 per cent of still wine consumption in 2011 and will post a 9.1 per cent increase by 2016.
It also bears mentioning that consumers are looking for quality. Bottles sold at over $10 per unit totalled 213.566 million 9-litre cases in 2011 and said volume will undergo significant growth (+29.93 per cent) between 2011 and 2016.
Canadian consumers are no different, with 69.5 per cent of wines bought in Canada valued at over $10. Furthermore, the Vinexpo study believes this consumption rate will increase by 30.45 per cent by 2016.
Fast-growing Canadian market
Between 2007 and 2011, wine consumption in Canada increased by +14.55 per cent, for a total of 43.21 million cases consumed in 2011. By 2016, this rate should stay the course, reaching 50.70 million cases, representing 14.27 per cent increase between 2012 and 2016, three times greater than the average international growth.
Consumption trends are stable, with a 17.49 per cent increase in red wine consumption between 2012 and 2016, representing 61.7 per cent of Canada’s still wine consumption, while rosés continue their rapid ascension, with a 45.41 per cent boost between 2012 and 2016.
As for value, sales figure growth keeps pace with volumes, with wine sales in Canada expected to increase by +14.75 per cent, for a total of $5.7 billion in 2016.
Import wine consumption is going strong, totalling 31.27 million cases in 2011 and expected to post 37.59 million cases by 2016, representing a 17 per cent increase. However, the domestic wine consumption rate is likely to drop slightly (from +10.71 per cent to +7.72 per cent) by 2016.
Coming as a major change since 2011, France has lost its status as Canada’s foremost supplier to Italy, whose exports to Canada posted a +16.1 per cent increase, while France saw its Canada-bound exports drop by -3.74 per cent.
Spirits market stabilization
According to the Vinexpo study, world spirits consumption should stabilize, posting a +8.98 per cent growth rate increase by 2016, well below its +32.64 per cent growth between 2007 and 2011.
The Asia-Pacific region is the world’s foremost spirits consumption zone (61.5 per cent of global consumption). This region posted a tremendous growth rate of +74.31 per cent from 2007 to 2011, which should stabilize to +13.63 per cent between 2012 and 2016.
In Canada, spirits consumption should grow +3.70 per cent between 2012 and 2016. This accelerated growth stems from an increase in import spirits consumption (+4.16 per cent) in 2012 and a drop in domestic spirits.
Vodka, the most popular spirit in Canada (4.76 million cases in 2011), is expected to grow +9.83 per cent between 2012 and 2016. It is followed by rum, which saw its consumption rate increase by +6.55 per cent between 2007 and 2011.
About Vinexpo
Created in 1981 by the Bordeaux Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Vinexpo exhibition has stood out over the years as being the largest global world wine and spirits exhibition for decision-makers, distributors and producers in the field. Held in Bordeaux every other year, Vinexpo has seen an impressive growth since its creation. In 2011, Vinexpo welcomed 2,400 exhibitors from 47 countries, 48,122 visitors from 148 countries and more than 1,254 journalists and writers. An exceptional showcase for products from around the world, Vinexpo is an exchange and debate point in the heart of the world’s most renowned wine-producing districts. Beyond the exhibition itself, Vinexpo has succeeded in providing wine and spirits professionals with a genuine tool for strategic reflection and planning through studies, symposia and conferences.
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